To start off with, a reminder of the cautionary words from NPR's Linda Holmes about just how useful any of this speculation will really be. In short, speculating based on upfronts is not much different than throwing a dart at names on a board, in terms of predicting quality and/or success.
Which won't stop me from doing it. While I'm a regular reader of Alan Sepinwall, most of my thoughts are based on this article from NPR's Monkey See blog: new dramas.
This post covers NBC dramas. I may or may not write about ABC, CBS, and FOX shows in later posts.
Upsides: From the creator of Lone Star. Interesting premise. Great cast. Nice production values.
Downsides: Has "critics' darling, quickly canceled" written all over it
Likelihood of Watching More Than The Pilot: 95% chance I'll watch as much as they air... hope that means more than the two episodes Lone Star got
Upsides: Creators from Angel, who know how to handle this kind of material.
Downsides: NBC hasn't done well with genre programming (The Cape, The Event, etc.). This is one of two shows that sounds like it should have just been Fables the TV show
Likelihood of Watching More Than The Pilot: 50%, depending on the execution
The Playboy Club
Upsides: Playboy Club in the '60s? Interesting.
Downsides: Trying to do "Mad Men" on network TV seems like a fool's errand
Likelihood of Watching More Than the Pilot: 50%
Upsides: Maria Bello. Show that it's remaking is apparently great source material.
Downsides: It's another cop drama. And NBC's history with British remakes is mixed at best.
Likelihood of Watching More Than the Pilot: 25%, given my general disinterest in cop dramas
Upsides: I'm not against a musical show, per se.
Downsides: It's just NBC's attempt to do Glee
Likelihood of Watching the Pilot: 25%